Estimation - How Estimation Is Done

How Estimation Is Done

An example of estimation would be determining how many candies of a given size are in a glass jar. Because the distribution of candies inside the jar may vary, the observer can count the number of candies visible through the glass, consider the size of the jar, and presume that a similar distribution can be found in the parts that can not be seen, thereby making an estimate of the total number of candies that could be in the jar if that presumption were true. Estimates can similarly be generated by projecting results from polls or surveys onto the entire population.

In making an estimate, the goal is often most useful to generate a range of possible outcomes that is precise enough to be useful, but not so precise that it is likely to be inaccurate. For example, in trying to guess the number of candies in the jar, if fifty were visible, and the total volume of the jar seemed to be about twenty times as large as the volume containing the visible candies, then one might simply project that there were a thousand candies in the jar. Such a projection, intended to pick the single value that is believed to be closest to the actual value, is called a point estimate. However, a point estimation is likely to be incorrect, because the sample size - in this case, the number of candies that are visible - is too small a number to be sure that it does not contain anomalies that differ from the population as a whole. A corresponding concept is an interval estimate, which captures a much larger range of possibilities, but is too broad to be useful. For example, if one were asked to estimate the percentage of people who like candy, it would clearly be correct that the number falls between zero and one hundred percent. Such an estimate would provide no guidance, however, to somebody who is trying to determine how many candies to buy for a party to be attended by a hundred people.