Uranium Market - History

History

The world's top uranium producers are Canada (28% of world production) and Australia (23%). Other major producers include Kazakhstan, Russia, Namibia and Niger . Purification facilities are almost always located at the mining sites. The facilities for enrichment, on the other hand, are found in those countries that produce significant amounts of electricity from nuclear power. Large commercial enrichment plants are in operation in France, Germany, Netherlands, UK, USA, and Russia, with smaller plants elsewhere. These nations form the core of the uranium market and influence considerable control over all buyers. The uranium market is a classic seller's market. The uranium cartel, as it became known, was the alliance of the major uranium producing nations. Representatives of these five countries met in Paris, France in February, 1972 to discuss the "orderly marketing" of uranium. Although sounding innocuous, they had, amongst themselves, a monopoly in the uranium market and were deciding to exercise it.

Global demand for uranium rose steadily from the end of World War II, largely driven by nuclear weapons procurement programs. This trend lasted until the early 1980s, when changing geopolitical circumstances as well as environmental, safety, economic concerns over nuclear power plants reduced demand somewhat. The production of a series of large hydro-electric power stations has also helped to depress the global market since the early 1970s. This phenomenon can be traced back to the construction of the vast Aswan Dam in Egypt, and to a certain extent with the ambitious Three Gorges Dam in China. During this time, large uranium inventories accumulated. In fact, until 1985 the Western uranium industry was producing material much faster than nuclear power plants and military programs were consuming it. Uranium prices slid throughout the decade with few respites, leaving the price below $10 per pound for yellowcake by year-end 1989.

As uranium prices fell, producers began curtailing operations or exiting the business entirely, leaving only a few actively involved in uranium mining and causing uranium inventories to shrink significantly. Since 1990 uranium requirements have outstripped uranium production. World uranium requirements are expected to increase steadily throughout the next decade to a peak of over 200 million pounds of yellowcake.

However several factors are pushing both industrialized and developing nations towards alternative energy sources. The increasing rate of consumption of fossil fuel is a concern for nations lacking in reserves, especially non-OPEC nations. The other issue is the level of pollution produced by coal-burning plants, and despite their vastness, an absence of economical methods for tapping into solar, wind-driven, or tidal reserves. Uranium suppliers hope that this will mean an increase in market share and an increase in volume over the long term.

Uranium prices reached an all-time low in 2001, costing US$7/lb. This was followed by a period of gradual rise, followed by a bubble culminating in mid-2007, which caused the price to peak at around 137$/lb. This was the highest price (adjusted for inflation) in 25 years. The higher price during the bubble has spurred new prospecting and reopening of old mines. Cameco and Rio Tinto Group are the top two producing companies (with 20% of the production each), followed by Areva (12%), BHP Billiton (9%) and Kazatomprom (9%).