Deterrence Theory - Criticism of Deterrence Theory

Criticism of Deterrence Theory

Deterrence theory is criticized for its assumptions about opponent rationales.

First, it is argued that suicidal or psychotic opponents may not be deterred by either forms of deterrence. Second, if two enemy states both possess nuclear weapons, Country "X" may try to gain a first strike advantage by suddenly launching weapons at Country "Y", with a view to destroying its enemy's nuclear launch silos thereby rendering Country "Y" incapable of a response. Third, diplomatic misunderstandings and/or opposing political ideologies may lead to escalating mutual perceptions of threat, and a subsequent arms race which elevates the risk of actual war — a scenario illustrated in the movies WarGames and Dr. Strangelove. An arms race is inefficient in its optimal output, as all countries involved expend resources on armaments that would not have been created if the others had not expended resources. This is a form of positive feedback. Fourth, escalation of perceived threat can make it easier for certain measures to be inflicted on a population by its government, such as restrictions on civil liberties, the creation of a military–industrial complex, and military expenditures resulting in higher taxes and increasing budget deficits.