Statistical Hypothesis Testing - Interpretation

Interpretation

If the p-value is less than the required significance level (equivalently, if the observed test statistic is in the critical region), then we say the null hypothesis is rejected at the given level of significance. Rejection of the null hypothesis is a conclusion. This is like a "guilty" verdict in a criminal trial - the evidence is sufficient to reject innocence, thus proving guilt. We might accept the alternative hypothesis (and the research hypothesis).

If the p-value is not less than the required significance level (equivalently, if the observed test statistic is outside the critical region), then the test has no result. The evidence is insufficient to support a conclusion. (This is like a jury that fails to reach a verdict.) The researcher typically gives extra consideration to those cases where the p-value is close to the significance level.

In the Lady tasting tea example, Fisher required the Lady to properly categorize all of the cups of tea to justify the conclusion that the result was unlikely to result from chance. He defined the critical region as that case alone. The region was defined by a probability (that the null hypothesis was correct) of less than 5%.

Whether rejection of the null hypothesis truly justifies acceptance of the research hypothesis depends on the structure of the hypotheses. Rejecting the hypothesis that a large paw print originated from a bear does not immediately prove the existence of Bigfoot. Hypothesis testing emphasizes the rejection which is based on a probability rather than the acceptance which requires extra steps of logic.

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