Planning Fallacy - Methods To Curb The Planning Fallacy

Methods To Curb The Planning Fallacy

Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, and Bent Flyvbjerg developed reference class forecasting to eliminate or reduce the effects of the planning fallacy in decision making.

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Famous quotes containing the words methods, curb, planning and/or fallacy:

    All good conversation, manners, and action, come from a spontaneity which forgets usages, and makes the moment great. Nature hates calculators; her methods are saltatory and impulsive.
    Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803–1882)

    The angels all were singing out of tune,
    And hoarse with having little else to do,
    Excepting to wind up the sun and moon,
    Or curb a runaway young star or two,
    George Gordon Noel Byron (1788–1824)

    In the planning and designing of new communities, housing projects, and urban renewal, the planners both public and private, need to give explicit consideration to the kind of world that is being created for the children who will be growing up in these settings. Particular attention should be given to the opportunities which the environment presents or precludes for involvement of children with persons both older and younger than themselves.
    Urie Bronfenbrenner (b. 1917)

    I’m not afraid of facts, I welcome facts but a congeries of facts is not equivalent to an idea. This is the essential fallacy of the so-called “scientific” mind. People who mistake facts for ideas are incomplete thinkers; they are gossips.
    Cynthia Ozick (b. 1928)