The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which someone's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than their objective accuracy, especially when confidence is relatively high. For example, in some quizzes, people rate their answers as "99% certain" but are wrong 40% of the time. It has been proposed that a metacognitive trait mediates the accuracy of confidence judgments, but this trait's relationship to variations in cognitive ability and personality remains uncertain. Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities.
Read more about Overconfidence Effect: Demonstration, Overplacement, Practical Implications, Related Biases, Core Self-evaluations
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“The attention of those who frequent the camp-meetings at Eastham is said to be divided between the preaching of the Methodists and the preaching of the billows on the back side of the Cape, for they all stream over here in the course of their stay. I trust that in this case the loudest voice carries it. With what effect may we suppose the ocean to say, “My hearers!” to the multitude on the bank. On that side some John N. Maffit; on this, the Reverend Poluphloisboios Thalassa.”
—Henry David Thoreau (1817–1862)