History
The Olduvai theory was introduced in 1989 by power system engineer Richard C. Duncan as the "transient-pulse theory of industrial civilization". with further details in the 1993 paper "The life-expectancy of industrial civilization: The decline to global equilibrium".
In June, 1996, Duncan introduced a paper titled "The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age" where the term "Olduvai Theory" replaced "transient-pulse theory" used in previous papers. Duncan further updated his theory in "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge", at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposium of the Geological Society of America, on November 13, 2000. In 2005, Duncan extended his data set to include up to 2003 in "The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization".
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