Military Activity in The Antarctic - Potential For Future Conflicts

Potential For Future Conflicts

John Keegan and Andrew Wheatcroft, in their 1986 book 'Zones of Conflict: An Atlas of Future Wars', make the point that strategic interests in Antarctica derive from two causes: economic and strategic. Antarctica has great potential economic value, in terms of mineral and oil resources. Strategically, there was continuing concern about keeping the Cape Horn route available for free passage during the Cold War, as, among other things, U.S. aircraft carriers cannot pass through the Panama Canal. The Falkland Islands, Keegan and Wheatcroft go on to say, dominate the Drake Passage, the 'stretch of stormy water separating South America from the Antarctic'. This was a less publicised factor during the Falklands War.

However, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and increasing competition for fossil fuel resources, the 'economic' rather than the 'strategic' rationale is probably more important in the early twenty-first century.

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