Gliese 710 - Computing and Details of The Closest Approach

Computing and Details of The Closest Approach

Gliese 710 has the potential to perturb the hypothetical Oort cloud enough to send a shower of comets into the inner Solar System, possibly causing an impact event. However, dynamic models by García-Sánchez, et al. in 1999 indicate that the net increase in cratering rate due to the passage of Gliese 710 will be no more than 5%. They estimate that the closest approach will happen in 1,360,000 years when the star will approach within 0.337 ± 0.177 parsecs (1.1 light-years) of the Sun.

More recent calculations by Bobylev in 2010 suggest Gliese 710 has an 86 percent chance of passing through the Oort cloud, considering the Oort cloud to be a spheroid around the Sun with semiminor and semimajor axes of 80,000 and 100,000 astronomical units. The distance of closest approach of Gliese 710 is difficult to compute precisely as it depends sensitively on its current position and velocity; Bobylev estimates that it will pass within 0.311 ± 0.167 pc (1.01 ± 0.54 light years) of the Sun. There is even a 1/10,000 chance of the star penetrating into the region (d < 1,000 AU) where the influence of the passing star on Kuiper belt objects is significant.

The star with the second greatest perturbational effect in the past or future 10 million years was Algol, a triple star system that passed no closer than 9.8 light years, 7.3 million years ago, but with a considerably larger total mass of 5.8 solar masses.