Diabetic Retinopathy - Risk Factors

Risk Factors

All people with diabetes mellitus are at risk – those with Type I diabetes and those with Type II diabetes. The longer a person has diabetes, the higher the risk of developing some ocular problem. Between 40 to 45 percent of Americans diagnosed with diabetes have some stage of diabetic retinopathy. After 20 years of diabetes, nearly all patients with Type I diabetes and >60% of patients with Type II diabetes have some degree of retinopathy; however, these statistics were published in 2002 using data from four years earlier.

Prior studies had also assumed a clear glycemic threshold between people at high and low risk of diabetic retinopathy. However, it has been shown that the widely accepted WHO and American Diabetes Association diagnostic cutoff for diabetes of a fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l (126 mg/dl) does not accurately identify diabetic retinopathy among patients. The cohort study included a multi-ethnic, cross-sectional adult population sample in the US, as well as two cross-sectional adult populations in Australia. For the US-based component of the study, the sensitivity was 34.7% and specificity was 86.6%. For patients at similar risk to those in this study (15.8% had diabetic retinopathy), this leads to a positive predictive value of 32.7% and negative predictive value of 87.6%.

Published rates vary between trials, the proposed explanation being differences in study methods and reporting of prevalence rather than incidence values.

During pregnancy, diabetic retinopathy may also be a problem for women with diabetes. It is recommended that all pregnant women with diabetes have dilated eye examinations each trimester to protect their vision.

People with Down's syndrome, who have three copies of chromosome 21, almost never acquire diabetic retinopathy. This protection appears to be due to the elevated levels of endostatin, an anti-angiogenic protein, derived from collagen XVIII. The collagen XVIII gene is located on chromosome 21.

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