Cost - Cost Estimation

Cost Estimation

When developing a business plan for a new or existing company, product, or project, planners typically make cost estimates in order to assess whether revenues/benefits will cover costs (see cost-benefit analysis). This is done in both business and government. Costs are often underestimated, resulting in cost overrun during execution.

The main causes of cost underestimation and overrun are optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation (Flyvbjerg et al. 2002). Reference class forecasting was developed to curb optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation and arrive at more accurate cost estimates.

Cost-plus pricing, is where the price equals cost plus a percentage of overhead or profit margin.

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