Curve Fitting and Over-optimization
A major stumbling block for many market timers is the phenomenon of curve fitting. This means that a given set of trading rules has been over-optimized to fit the particular dataset for which it has been back-tested. Unfortunately, if the trading rules are over-optimized they often fail to work on future data. Market timers attempt to avoid these difficulties in a number of ways. One is by looking for clusters of parameter values which work particularly well. Another is using out-of-sample data, which ostensibly allows the market timer to see how the system will work on unforeseen data. However, critics charge that once the strategy has been revised to reflect such data it is no longer "out-of-sample".
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Famous quotes containing the words curve and/or fitting:
“I have been photographing our toilet, that glossy enameled receptacle of extraordinary beauty.... Here was every sensuous curve of the “human figure divine” but minus the imperfections. Never did the Greeks reach a more significant consummation to their culture, and it somehow reminded me, in the glory of its chaste convulsions and in its swelling, sweeping, forward movement of finely progressing contours, of the Victory of Samothrace.”
—Edward Weston (1886–1958)
“Eccentricity gives misfits a way of fitting in.”
—Mason Cooley (b. 1927)