Universal Probability Bound - Dembski's Estimate

Dembski's Estimate

Dembski's original value for the universal probability bound is 1 in 10150, derived as the inverse of the product of the following approximate quantities:

• 1080, the number of elementary particles in the observable universe.
• 1045, the maximum rate per second at which transitions in physical states can occur (i.e., the inverse of the Planck time).
• 1025, a billion times longer than the typical estimated age of the universe in seconds.

Thus, 10150 = 1080 × 1045 × 1025. Hence, this value corresponds to an upper limit on the number of physical events that could possibly have occurred since the big bang.

Dembski has recently (as of 2005) refined his definition to be the inverse of the product of two different quantities:

• An upper bound on the computational resources of the universe in its entire history. This is estimated by Seth Lloyd as 10120 elementary logic operations on a register of 1090 bits
• The (variable) rank complexity of the event under consideration.

If the latter quantity equals 10150, then the overall universal probability bound corresponds to the original value.