Tropical Cyclone Forecasting - Track

Track

See also: Tropical cyclone track forecasting See also: Tropical cyclone forecast model

The large-scale synoptic flow determines 70 to 90 percent of a tropical cyclone's motion. The deep-layer mean flow is considered to be the best tool in determining track direction and speed. If storms are significantly sheared, use of a lower-level wind is a better predictor. Knowledge of the beta effect can be used to steer a tropical cyclone, since it leads to a more northwest heading for tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. It is also best to smooth out short term wobbles of the storm center in order to determine a more accurate trajectory.

Because of the forces that affect tropical cyclone tracks, accurate track predictions depend on determining the position and strength of high- and low-pressure areas, and predicting how those areas will change during the life of a tropical system. Combining forecast models with increased understanding of the forces that act on tropical cyclones, and a wealth of data from Earth-orbiting satellites and other sensors, scientists have increased the accuracy of track forecasts over recent decades. An accurate track forecast is important, because if the track forecast is incorrect, forecasts for intensity, rainfall, storm surge, and tornado threat will also be incorrect.

Read more about this topic:  Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Famous quotes containing the word track:

    “Water. Its sunny track in the plain; its splashing in the garden canal, the sound it makes when in its course it meets the mane of the grass; the diluted reflection of the sky together with the fleeting sight of the reeds; the Negresses fill their dripping gourds and their red clay containers; the song of the washerwomen; the gorged fields the tall crops ripening.”
    —Jacques Roumain (1907–1945)

    “What joy when the insouciant
    armadillo glances at us and doesn’t
    quicken his trotting
    across the track into the palm brush.
    What is this joy? That no animal
    falters, but knows what it must do?”
    —Denise Levertov (b. 1923)

    “The war is dreadful. It is the business of the artist to follow it home to the heart of the individual fighters—not to talk in armies and nations and numbers—but to track it home.”
    —D.H. (David Herbert)