Modelling Technological Change
In its earlier days, technological change was illustrated with the 'Linear Model of Innovation', which has now been largely discarded to be replaced with a model of technological change that involves innovation at all stages of research, development, diffusion and use. When spoken about "modelling technological change" often the process of innovation is meant. This process of continuous improvement is often modelled as a curve depicting decreasing costs over time (for instance fuel cell which have become cheaper every year).
- TC is often modelled using a learning curve, ex.: Ct=C0 * Xt^-b
- TC itself is often included in other models (for instance climate change models) and was often taken as an exogenous factor. These days TC is more often included as an endogenous factor. This means that it is taken as something you can influence. It is generally accepted that policy can influence the speed and direction of TC (for instance more towards clean technologies). This is referred to as Induced Technological Change.
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Famous quotes containing the words technological change, modelling and/or change:
“Technological change defines the horizon of our material world as it shapes the limiting conditions of what is possible and what is barely imaginable. It erodes ... assumptions about the nature of our reality, the “pattern” in which we dwell, and lays open new choices.”
—Shoshana Zuboff (b. 1951)
“The windy springs and the blazing summers, one after another, had enriched and mellowed that flat tableland; all the human effort that had gone into it was coming back in long, sweeping lines of fertility. The changes seemed beautiful and harmonious to me; it was like watching the growth of a great man or of a great idea. I recognized every tree and sandbank and rugged draw. I found that I remembered the conformation of the land as one remembers the modelling of human faces.”
—Willa Cather (1873–1947)
“Had it not been for you, I should have remained what I was when we first met, a prejudiced, narrow-minded being, with contracted sympathies and false knowledge, wasting my life on obsolete trifles, and utterly insensible to the privilege of living in this wondrous age of change and progress.”
—Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881)