In probability theory, the rule of succession is a formula introduced in the 18th century by Pierre-Simon Laplace in the course of treating the sunrise problem.
The formula is still used, particularly to estimate underlying probabilities when there are few observations, or for events which have not been observed to occur at all in (finite) sample data. Assigning events a zero probability would contravene Cromwell's rule, which can never be strictly justified in physical situations, albeit sometimes has to be assumed in practice.
Read more about Rule Of Succession: Statement of The Rule of Succession, Interpretation, Historical Application To The Sunrise Problem, Mathematical Details, Generalization To Any Number of Possibilities, Further Analysis
Famous quotes containing the words rule of, rule and/or succession:
“When I came of age I did not know much. Still somehow, I could read, write, and cipher to the Rule of Three.... The little advance I now have upon this store of education, I have picked up from time to time under the pressure of necessity.”
—Abraham Lincoln (1809–1865)
“My reason, it’s true, controls my feelings, but whatever its authority, it doesn’t rule them so much as tyrannize them.”
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“The heart of man ever finds a constant succession of passions, so that the destroying and pulling down of one proves generally to be nothing else but the production and the setting up of another.”
—François, Duc De La Rochefoucauld (1613–1680)