History
A seat based around Rotorua has been a part of the New Zealand electoral landscape since the 1919 election, with a gap 1946 - 1954. Previously the city was in the Bay of Plenty electorate in 1908, then (just) in the Tauranga electorate in 1911 and 1914.
From 1919, it has moved from being a marginal seat that twice favoured the Labour candidate, to being home to two six-term National MPs. With the advent of Mixed Member Proportional voting in 1996, the Rotorua seat was greatly expanded to include areas previously part of the Eastern Bay of Plenty and Tarawera seats. Both Tarawera and Rotorua were safe National Party seats, and in the ensuing battle for the nomination, incumbents Paul East and Max Bradford faced off for a nomination eventually secured by Bradford (with East getting a high List position).
Despite both seats being reasonably loyal to the National Party, Bradford's tenure as MP for Rotorua was just three years, before being ousted by Labour MP Steve Chadwick. Chadwick's initial majority of 4,978 blew out to over 7,500 in 2002 before it was reined in to just 662 in 2005, as the National Party consolidated the centre-right vote, with its biggest gains being in the provincial North Island. In 2005, Chadwick's party was less popular than their candidate, coming 1,645 votes behind National.
In 2008 Chadwick was defeated by National candidate Todd McClay who won the seat with a majority of 5067. In the 2011 election McClay again returned as the Member for Rotorua increasing his majority to 7,357.
Rotorua is also a seat where the New Zealand First party does well, with its biggest appeal among provincial New Zealanders, and as results in 1996 indicate, Māori: in the three most recent elections, New Zealand First has polled around three per cent higher in Rotorua than it did in the rest of New Zealand.
Read more about this topic: Rotorua (New Zealand Electorate)
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