Importance
Regression toward the mean is a significant consideration in the design of experiments.
Take a hypothetical example of 1,000 individuals of a similar age who were examined and scored on the risk of experiencing a heart attack. Statistics could be used to measure the success of an intervention on the 50 who were rated at the greatest risk. The intervention could be a change in diet, exercise, or a drug treatment. Even if the interventions are worthless, the test group would be expected to show an improvement on their next physical exam, because of regression toward the mean. The best way to combat this effect is to divide the group randomly into a treatment group that receives the treatment, and a control group that does not. The treatment would then be judged effective only if the treatment group improves more than the control group.
Alternatively, a group of disadvantaged children could be tested to identify the ones with most college potential. The top 1% could be identified and supplied with special enrichment courses, tutoring, counseling and computers. Even if the program is effective, their average scores may well be less when the test is repeated a year later. However, in these circumstances it may be considered unfair to have a control group of disadvantaged children whose special needs are ignored. A mathematical calculation for shrinkage can adjust for this effect, although it will not be as reliable as the control group method (see also Stein's example.)
The effect can also be exploited for general inference and estimation. The hottest place in the country today is more likely to be cooler tomorrow than hotter, as compared to today. The best performing mutual fund over the last three years is more likely to see relative performance decline than improve over the next three years. The most successful Hollywood actor of this year is likely to have less gross than more gross for his or her next movie. The baseball player with the greatest batting average by the All-Star break is more likely to have a lower average than a higher average over the second half of the season.
Read more about this topic: Regression Toward The Mean
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“I am not sure that it is of the first importance that you should be happy. Many an unhappy man has been of deep service to himself and to the world.”
—Woodrow Wilson (1856–1924)
“The child thinks of growing old as an almost obscene calamity, which for some mysterious reason will never happen to itself. All who have passed the age of thirty are joyless grotesques, endlessly fussing about things of no importance and staying alive without, so far as the child can see, having anything to live for. Only child life is real life.”
—George Orwell (1903–1950)
“Never before has a generation of parents faced such awesome competition with the mass media for their children’s attention. While parents tout the virtues of premarital virginity, drug-free living, nonviolent resolution of social conflict, or character over physical appearance, their values are daily challenged by television soaps, rock music lyrics, tabloid headlines, and movie scenes extolling the importance of physical appearance and conformity.”
—Marianne E. Neifert (20th century)