Quantitative Precipitation Forecast - Use of Forecast Models

Use of Forecast Models

In the past, the forecaster was responsible for generating the entire weather forecast based upon available observations. Today, meteorologists' input is generally confined to choosing a model based on various parameters, such as model biases and performance. Using a consensus of forecast models, as well as ensemble members of the various models, can help reduce forecast error. However, regardless how small the average error becomes with any individual system, large errors within any particularly piece of guidance are still possible on any given model run. Professionals are required to interpret the model data into weather forecasts that are understandable to the lay person. Professionals can use knowledge of local effects which may be too small in size to be resolved by the model to add information to the forecast. As an example, terrain is considered in the QPF process by using topography or climatological precipitation patterns from observations with fine detail. Using model guidance and comparing the various forecast fields to climatology, extreme events such as excessive precipitation associated with later flood events lead to better forecasts. While increasing accuracy of forecast models implies that humans may no longer be needed in the forecast process at some point in the future, there is currently still a need for human intervention.