Missile Approach Warning - The Infra Red Heat Seeking Missile Threat

The Infra Red Heat Seeking Missile Threat

Analysis of aircraft losses due to enemy action since the 1960s shows that at least 70% of all losses were attributed to passive heat seeking i.e. Infra Red (IR) guided missiles. This might appear surprising considering that radar guided SAM systems have longer engagement ranges, are faster, have higher maneuvering potential, carries larger warheads and are equipped with proximity fuzes.

The main reason why IR guided missiles were so effective was that it took much longer to develop effective warning systems against them. Most aircraft that were shot down never knew that the missile(s) were coming. Radar warning receivers on the other hand already proved their effectiveness by the early 1970s which considerably improved the survival rate of aircraft against radar threats.

The first air to air IR missiles appeared in the 1950s. The technology allowed more compact missile designs and made it possible to develop IR Man Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) i.e. shoulder launched missiles, which became operational by the 1960s.

IR MANPADS are relatively cheap, quite robust, easy to operate and difficult to detect. They also do not require the infrastructure often associated with radar guided SAM deployments which often reveals their presence.

Vast quantities of MANPADS have been manufactured (more than 700,000 produced since 1970 according to CSIS "Transnational Threats Update" Volume 1. No 10. 2003). Large numbers proliferated during the Cold War and immediate post Cold War era. Substantial quantities are available and affordable on the black market and have found their way into the hands of "non state" organizations or the so-called "asymmetric" threat. (An estimate by Jane's Intelligence Review of Feb 2003 puts this number as high as 150 000). An article "Proliferation of MANPADS and the Threat to Civil Aviation" of August 13, 2003 by Jane's Terrorism and Insurgency Centre estimates that the black market price of MANPADS like the SA-7 could be as low as $5,000.

Intelligence regarding the whereabouts of MANPADS, especially in the hands of "non state" organizations, is usually vague and unreliable. This, in turn, makes it difficult to anticipate where and when to expect MANPADS attacks.

The 2nd and 3rd generation MANPADS appeared by the 1980s and further increased the performance and effectiveness of MANPADS due to advanced new seeker head technology, improved rocket motors and aerodynamic refinements. Their performance improved in terms of lethal range, minimum launch angle, maneuvering potential and all aspect engagement angles (1st generation MANPADS were restricted to only rear sector attacks). They also became more ECM resistant.

MANPADS therefore became even more lethal specifically against more vulnerable platforms such as helicopters, light aircraft, and commercial and military transport aircraft (during approaches and departures). The slower speed of these platforms forces them to spend more time within the kill zones of MANPADS compared to high performance fighter and strike aircraft.

At least 35 MANPADS attacks on civilian aircraft are on record. Twenty four were shot down killing about 500 people in the process.