July Crisis - Preparations For The Austro-Hungarian Ultimatum

Preparations For The Austro-Hungarian Ultimatum

On July 7, on his return to Vienna Count Hoyos reported to Austro-Hungarian Crown Council that Austria had Germany’s full support even if “measures against Serbia should bring about a big war”. At the Crown Council, Berchtold strongly urged that a war against Serbia be begun as soon as possible.

At that meeting of the Crown Council, all involved were in full favour of war except Count Tisza. Count Tisza warned that any attack on Serbia “would, as far as can humanly be foreseen, lead to an intervention by Russia and hence a world war”. The rest of the participants debated about whether Austria should just launch an unprovoked attack or issue an ultimatum to Serbia with demands so stringent that it was bound to be rejected. The Austria Prime Minister Count Karl von Stürgkh warned Tisza that if Austria did not launch a war, its “policy of hesitation and weakness” would cause Germany to abandon Austria-Hungary as an ally. All present except Tisza finally agreed that Austria-Hungary should present an ultimatum designed to be rejected.

Starting on July 7, Tschirschky and Berchtold held almost daily meetings about how to co-ordinate the diplomatic action to justify a war against Serbia. On July 8, Tschirschky presented Berchtold with a message from Wilhelm who declared he “stated most emphatically that Berlin expected the Monarchy to act against Serbia, and that Germany would not understand it, if…the present opportunity were allowed to go by…without a blow stuck”. At the same meeting, Tschirschky told Berchtold, “if we compromised or bargained with Serbia, Germany would interpret this as a confession of weakness, which could not be without effect on our position in the Triple Alliance and on Germany’s future policy”. On July 7, Bethmann Hollweg told his aide and close friend Kurt Riezler that “An action against Serbia can lead to a world war”. Bethmann Hollweg felt such a “leap in the dark” was justified by the international situation. Bethmann Hollweg told Riezler that Germany was “completely paralysed” and that “The future belongs to Russia which is growing and growing, and is becoming an ever increasing nightmare to us”. Riezler went to write in his diary that Bethmann Hollweg painted a “devastating picture” with Russia building rail-roads in Congress Poland that allow Russia to mobilize faster once the Great Military Programme was finished in 1917, and that an Austro-Serbian war would probably cause a world war, “...which would lead to an overthrow of the existing order”, but since the “existing order was lifeless and void of ideas”, such a war could only be welcomed as a blessing to Germany. Bethmann Hollweg's fears about Russia led him to credit Anglo-Russian naval talks in May 1914 as the beginning of an “encirclement” policy against Germany that could only be broken through war. After Anglo-French naval talks had taken place, the Russians demanded the same courtesy be extended to them, which led to inconclusive Anglo-Russian naval talks.

On July 8th, Tisza told another meeting of the Crown Council that any attack on Serbia was bound to lead to “intervention by Russia and consequently world war”. On the same day, Kurt Riezler’s diary has his friend Bethmann Hollweg saying: “If the war comes from the East, so that we are marching to Austria-Hungary’s aid instead of Austria-Hungary to ours, then we have a chance of winning it. If war does not come, if the Czar does not want it or France dismayed, counsels peace, then we still have a chance of manoeuvring the Entente apart over this action”. There are suggestions that perhaps the last sentence is a post-war forgery designed to make Germany look less aggressive by hoping to break apart the Triple Entente through the device of an Austro-Serbian war.

On July 9th, Berchtold advised Franz Joseph I of Austria that he would present Belgrade with an ultimatum containing demands that were designed to be rejected, which would have ensured a war without the “odium of attacking Serbia without warning, put her in the wrong” and ensured that Britain and Romania would remain neutral. On July 10th, Berchtold told Tschirschky he would present the Serbs with an ultimatum containing “unacceptable demands” as the best way of causing war, but “chief care” would be taken about how to present these “unacceptable demands”. In response, Wilhelm wrote angrily on the margins of Tschirschky’s dispatch “They had time enough for that!”

It took a week from July 7–14 for Tisza to be persuaded to support the war against Serbia. On July 9, Prince Lichnowsky, the German Ambassador in London was told by the British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey that he “…saw no reason for taking a pessimistic view of the situation”. Despite Tisza's opposition, Berchtold had ordered his officials to start drafting an ultimatum to Serbia on July 10th. The German Ambassador reported that “Count Berchtold appeared to hope that Serbia would not agree to the Austro-Hungarian demands, as a mere diplomatic victory would put the country here again in a stagnant mood”. Count Hoyos told a German diplomat “that the demands were really of such a nature that no nation that still possessed self-respect and dignity could possibly accept them”.

On July 11, Tschirschky reported to the German Foreign Minister von Jagow that he “again took the occasion to discuss with Berchtold what action was to be taken against Serbia, chiefly in order to assure the minister once again, emphatically that speedy action was called for.” On the same day, the German Foreign Office wanted to know if they should send a telegram congratulating King Peter of Serbia on his birthday. Wilhelm replied: “As Vienna has so far inaugurated no action of any sort against Belgrade, the omission of the customary telegram would be too noticeable and might be the cause of premature uneasiness.... It should be sent.” On July 12, Szögyény reported from Berlin that everyone in the German government wanted to see Austria-Hungary declare war on Serbia at once, and were tired of Austrian indecision about whether to choose war or peace. He added that this:

“absolute insistence on a war against Serbia was based on the two considerations already mentioned; firstly that Russia and France were ‘not yet ready’ and secondly that Britain will not at this juncture intervene in a war which breaks out over a Balkan state, even if this should lead to a conflict with Russia, possibly also France.... Not only have Anglo-German relations so improved that Germany feels that she need no longer feel fear a directly hostile attitude by Britain, but above all, Britain at this moment is anything but anxious for war, and has no wish whatever to pull chestnuts out of the fire for Serbia, or in the last instance, Russia.... In general, then, it appears from all this that the political constellation is as favourable for us as it could possibly be.”.

On July 12, Berchtold had shown Tschirschky the contents of his ultimatum containing “unacceptable demands”, and promised to present it to the Serbs after the Franco-Russian summit between President Poincaré and Nicholas II was over. Wilhelm wrote on the margins of Tschirschky’s dispatch “What a pity!” that the ultimatum would be presented so late in July. By July 14, Tisza agreed to support war out of fears that a policy of peace would lead to Germany renouncing the Dual Alliance of 1879. On that day, Tschirschky reported to Berlin that Austria-Hungary would present an ultimatum “which would almost certainly be rejected and should result in war”. That same day, Jagow sent instructions to Prince Lichnowsky, the German Ambassador in London, stating Germany had decided to do everything within its power to cause an Austro-Serbian war, but Germany must avoid the impression “that we were egging Austria on to war. Jagow described a war against Serbia as Austria-Hungary's last chance at “political rehabilitation”. He stated that under no circumstances did he want a peaceful solution, and though he did not want a preventive war, he would not “jib at the post” if such a war came because Germany was ready for it, and Russia “fundamentally was not”. Russia and Germany being destined to fight each other, Jagow believed that now was the best time for the inevitable war, because: “in a few years Russia…will be ready. Then she will crush us on land by weight of numbers, and she will have her Baltic Fleet and her strategic railroads ready. Our group meanwhile is getting weaker”.

Jagow's belief that the summer of 1914 was the best time for Germany to go to war was widely shared in the German government. Many German officials believed that the “Teuton race” and “Slav race” were destined to fight each other in a terrible “race war” for the domination of Europe, and that now was the best time for such a war to come. The Chief of the German General Staff, Moltke, told Count Lerchenfeld, the Bavarian Minister in Berlin, that “a moment so favourable from the military point of view might never occur again”. Moltke argued that due to the alleged superiority of German weaponry and training, combined with the recent change in the French Army from a two-year to a three-year period of service, Germany could easily defeat both France and Russia in 1914.

On July 13, the Austrian investigators of the assassination of Franz Ferdinand reported to Count Berchtold that:

“There is nothing to prove or even to suppose that the Serbian government is accessory to the inducement for the crime, its preparations, or the furnishing of weapons. On the contrary, there are reasons to believe that this altogether out of the question.”

This report depressed Berchtold as it meant there was little evidence to support his pretext of Serbian government involvement in Franz Ferdinand’s assassination.

On July 14, the Austrians assured the Germans that the ultimatum to be delivered to Serbia “is being composed so that the possibility of its acceptance is practically excluded”. That same day, Conrad told Berchtold that because of his desire to get the summer harvest in, the earliest that Austria could declare war was July 25th. At the same time, the visit of the French President and Premier to St. Petersburg might that it was considered undesirable to present the ultimatum until the visit was over. The ultimatum, officially called a demarche, would not be delivered until July 23rd with an expiry date of July 25th.

On July 16, Bethmann Hollweg told Count Roedern, the State Secretary for Alsace-Lorraine, that he couldn't care less about Serbia or alleged Serbian complicity in the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. All that mattered was that Austria attack Serbia that summer, to result in a win-win situation for Germany. If Bethmann Hollweg's view was correct, an Austro-Serbian war would either cause a general war (which Bethmann Hollweg believed Germany would win) or cause the Triple Entente to break up. That same day, the Russian Ambassador to Austria-Hungary reported to St. Petersburg that “Information reaches me that the Austro-Hungarian government at the conclusion of the inquiry intends to make certain demands on Belgrade.... It would seem to me desirable that at the present moment, before a final decision on the matter, the Vienna Cabinet should be informed how Russia would react to the fact of Austria's presenting demands to Serbia such as would be unacceptable to the dignity of that state”. The Austrian Ambassador in St. Petersburg falsely told the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Sazonov, that Austria was not planning on any measure that might cause a war in the Balkans, so no Russian complaints were made.

On July 17, Berchtold complained to Prince Stolberg of the German Embassy that though he thought his ultimatum would probably be rejected, he was still worried that it was possible for the Serbs to accept it, and wanted more time to re-phrase the document. Stolberg reported back to Berlin that he had told Berchtold:

“If Austria really wants to clear up her relationship with Serbia once and for all, which Tisza himself in his recent speech called ‘indispensable’, then it would pass comprehension why such demands were not being made as would make the breach unavoidable. If the action simply peters out, once again, and ends with a so-called diplomatic success, the belief which is already widely held there that the Monarchy is no longer capable of vigorous action will be dangerously strengthened. The consequences, internal and external, which would result from this, inside Austria and abroad, are obvious.”

On July 18th, to reassure Stolberg, Count Hoyos promised him that the demands in the draft text of the ultimatum “were really of such a nature that no nation that still possessed self-respect and dignity could possibly accept them". The same day, in response to rumours about an Austrian ultimatum, the Serbian Prime Minister Pašić stated that he would not accept any measures compromising on Serbian sovereignty.

On July 18, Hans Schoen, a Bavarian diplomat in Berlin, told the Bavarian Prime Minister Count Georg von Hertling that Austria was only making a pretence “of being peacefully inclined”. Commenting on the draft text of the ultimatum shown to him by German diplomats, Schoen noted that: “It is perfectly plain that Serbia can not accept any such demands, which are incompatible with her dignity as a sovereign state. Thus the result would be war.” Zimmermann told Schoen that a powerful and successful move against Serbia would save Austria-Hungary from internal disintegration, and that was why Germany had given Austria “a blank power of full authority, even at the risk of a war with Russia”.

On July 19th, the Crown Council in Vienna finally decided upon the wording of the ultimatum to be presented to Serbia on July 23rd. The extent of German influence on Austria-Hungary was evident when Jagow ordered Berchtold to hold back the delivery of the ultimatum by an hour to make sure that the French President and Premier were at sea after their summit in St. Petersburg. The first draft of the ultimatum had been shown to the German Embassy in Vienna on July 12th, and the final text was provided in advance to the German Embassy on July 22nd.

Because of the Austrian delay in writing the ultimatum, the element of surprise that Germany had counted upon in the war against Serbia was lost. Instead, the strategy of “localization” was adopted, which meant that when the Austro-Serbian war began, Germany would pressure other powers not to become involved even at the risk of war. On July 19th, Jagow published a note in the semi-official North German Gazette warning other powers “that the settlement of differences which may arise between Austria-Hungary and Serbia should remain localized”. Asked by Jules Cambon, the French Ambassador to Germany, how he knew about the contents of the Austrian ultimatum as he had revealed in the North German Gazette, Jagow pretended to be ignorant of it. Sir Horace Rumbold of the British Embassy in Berlin reported: “We do not know the facts. The German government clearly do know. They know what the Austrian government is going to demand...and I think we may say with some assurance that they had expressed approval of those demands and promised support should dangerous complications ensure...the German government did not believe that there is any danger of war.” Though Jagow’s pretence was not widely believed, it was still believed at this time that Germany was aiming for peace, and could restrain Austria.

General Moltke of the German General Staff again strongly approved of the idea of an Austrian attack on Serbia as the best way of bringing about the desired world war.

On July 20th, the German government informed the directors of the Norddeutscher Lloyd and Hamburg America Line shipping companies that Austria would soon present an ultimatum that might cause a general European war, and they should start withdrawing their ships from foreign waters back to the Reich at once. That same day, the German Navy was ordered to start concentrating the High Seas Fleet, in case of a general war. Riezler’s diary has Bethmann Hollweg saying to him on July 20th that Russia with its “growing demands and tremendous dynamic power would be impossible to repel in a few years, especially if the present European constellation continues to exist.” Riezler ended his diary with noting that Bethmann Hollweg was “determined and taciturn”, and quoted his former Foreign Minister Kiderlen-Waechter who “had always said we must fight”.

On July 21st, the German government told Jules Cambon, the French Ambassador in Berlin, and Bronewski, the Russian chargé d'affaires, that the German Reich had no knowledge of what Austrian policy was towards Serbia. In private, Zimmermann wrote that the German government “entirely agreed that Austria must take advantage of the favourable moment, even at the risk of further complications”, but that he doubted “whether Vienna would nerve herself to act”. Zimmermann ended his memo that “he gathered that Vienna, timid and undecided as it always was, was almost sorry” that Germany had given the “blank cheque” of July 5th, 1914 instead of advising restraint with Serbia. Conrad himself was pressuring the Dual Monarchy for “haste” in starting a war, in order to prevent Serbia from “smelling a rat and herself volunteering compensation, perhaps under pressure from France and Russia”. On July 22nd, Germany refused an Austrian request to have the German Minister in Belgrade present the ultimatum to Serbia because as Jagow had said, it would look too much “as though we were egging Austria on to make war”.

On July 23rd, the whole German military and political leadership ostentatiously went on vacation. Count Schoen, the Bavarian chargé d'affaires in Berlin reported to Munich: “The administration will, immediately upon the presentation of the Austrian note at Belgrade, initiate diplomatic action with the Powers,in the interest of the localization of the war. It will claim that that Austrian action has been just of much of a surprise to it as to the other Powers, pointing out the fact that the Emperor is on his northern journey, and that the Prussian Minister of War, as well as the Chief of the Grand General Staff are away on leave of absence.”

However, on July 19th—four days before the ultimatum was presented—Jagow had asked all German Ambassadors the world over (except for Austria-Hungary) to state to their host governments that: “If the Austro-Hungarian government is not going to abdicate forever as a great power, she has no choice but to enforce acceptance by the Serbian government of her demands by strong pressure and, if necessary, by resort to military measures.” Subsequently, Jagow realized that his statement was incompatible with his claims of ignorance, thus leading to a hasty second dispatch claiming total ignorance of the Austrian ultimatum, but threatening “incalculable consequences” if any power tried to stop Austria-Hungary from attacking Serbia if the ultimatum were rejected. When Pourtalès, the German Ambassador in St. Petersburg reported that the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Sazonov warned him that Germany “must reckon with Europe” if she supported an Austrian attack against Serbia, Wilhelm wrote on the margin of Pourtalès’s dispatch “No! Russia, yes!”

In supporting an Austrian war with Serbia, Germany’s leaders took the plunge, knowing full well the risks of a general war. As the historian Fritz Fischer pointed out, this could be proven by Jagow’s request to know the full itinerary of Wilhelm’s North Sea cruise before the Austrian ultimatum was presented because: “Since we went to localize the conflict between Austria and Serbia, we must not have the world alarmed by His Majesty’s returning prematurely; on the other hand, His Majesty must be within reach, in case unpredictable developments should force us to take important decisions, such as mobilization. His Majesty might perhaps spend the last days of his cruise in the Baltic”. On July 22nd, before the ultimatum was delivered, the Austrian government asked that the German government deliver the Austrian declaration of war when the ultimatum expired on July 25th. Jagow refused stating that “Our standpoint has to be that the quarrel with Serbia is an Austro-Hungarian internal affair.”

On July 23, the Austrian Minister in Belgrade, Baron Giesl von Gieslingen, presented the ultimatum to the Serbian government. At the same time, and expecting rejection, the Austrian Army opened its war book, and began preparations for hostilities.