Information-based Complexity - An Example: Mathematical Finance

An Example: Mathematical Finance

Very high dimensional integrals are common in finance. For example, computing expected cash flows for a collateralized mortgage obligation (CMO) requires the calculation of a number of dimensional integrals, the being the number of months in years. Recall that if a worst case assurance is required the time is of order time units. Even if the error is not small, say this is time units. People in finance have long been using the Monte Carlo method (MC), an instance of a randomized algorithm. Then in 1994 a research group at Columbia University (Papageorgiou, Paskov, Traub, Woźniakowski) discovered that the quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method using low discrepancy sequences beat MC by one to three orders of magnitude. The results were reported to a number of Wall Street finance to considerable initial skepticism. The results were first published by Paskov and Traub, Faster Valuation of Financial Derivatives, Journal of Portfolio Management 22, 113-120. Today QMC is widely used in the financial sector to value financial derivatives.

These results are empirical; where does computational complexity come in? QMC is not a panacea for all high dimensional integrals. What is special about financial derivatives? Here's a possible explanation. The dimensions in the CMO represent monthly future times. Due to the discounted value of money variables representing times for in the future are less important than the variables representing nearby times. Thus the integrals are non-isotropic. Sloan and Woźniakowski introduced the very powerful idea of weighted spaces which is a formalization of the above observation. They were able to show that with this additional domain knowledge high dimensional integrals satisfying certain conditions were tractable even in the worst case! In contrast the Monte Carlo method gives only a stochastic assurance. See Sloan and Woźniakowski When are Quasi-Monte Carlo Algorithms Efficient for High Dimensional Integration? J. Complexity 14, 1-33, 1998. For which classes of integrals is QMC superior to MC? This continues to be a major research problem.

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