Theory
Omran divided the epidemiological transition of mortality into three phases, in the last of which chronic diseases replace infection as the primary cause of death. These phases are:
- The Age of Pestilence and Famine: Where mortality is high and fluctuating, precluding sustained population growth, with low and variable life expectancy, vacillating between 20 and 40 years.
- The Age of Receding Pandemics: Where mortality progressively declines, with the rate of decline accelerating as epidemic peaks decrease in frequency. Average life expectancy increases steadily from about 30 to 50 years. Population growth is sustained and begins to be exponential.
- The Age of Degenerative and Man-Made Diseases: Mortality continues to decline and eventually approaches stability at a relatively low level.
The epidemiological transition occurs as a country undergoes the process of modernization from developing nation to developed nation status. The developments of modern healthcare, and medicine like antibiotics, drastically reduces infant mortality rates and extends average life expectancy which, coupled with subsequent declines in fertility rates, reflects a transition to chronic and degenerative diseases as more important causes of death.
Read more about this topic: Epidemiological Transition
Famous quotes containing the word theory:
“Lucretius
Sings his great theory of natural origins and of wise conduct; Plato
smiling carves dreams, bright cells
Of incorruptible wax to hive the Greek honey.”
—Robinson Jeffers (1887–1962)
“It is not enough for theory to describe and analyse, it must itself be an event in the universe it describes. In order to do this theory must partake of and become the acceleration of this logic. It must tear itself from all referents and take pride only in the future. Theory must operate on time at the cost of a deliberate distortion of present reality.”
—Jean Baudrillard (b. 1929)
“Frankly, these days, without a theory to go with it, I can’t see a painting.”
—Tom Wolfe (b. 1931)