Critical Assumption Planning - Test Program Design

Test Program Design

The assumptions need to be tested. Sometimes good market research is enough, other times a working prototype needs to be developed. The order in which the assumptions are tested is critical in terms of the money spent on testing. One of the major focuses of the CAP method is to maximize the learning per unit expenditure on testing.

In order to determine the best testing option the test Effectiveness ratio (e) is calculated for one or more assumptions based on the estimated Costs (C), Time spend on testing (T) and the estimated reduction (R) between the NPV values of the assumptions (P as a percentage of the NPV range). Using these parameters, the effectiveness ratio (e) is calculated:


e = \frac{\sum (PR)}{CT}


Once the best testing option is chosen from the different test effectiveness values, the organisation can finish the planning of the test.

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