1993 Storm of The Century - Forecasting

Forecasting

The 1993 Storm of the Century marked a milestone in United States weather forecasting. By March 2 (and by some accounts even earlier), several operational numerical weather prediction models and medium-range forecasters at the US National Weather Service recognized the threat of a significant snowstorm. By March 12, many had reviewed the data and were convinced that a serious threat loomed overhead. This marked the first time that National Weather Service meteorologists were able to predict accurately a system's severity five days in advance. Official blizzard warnings were issued two days before the storm arrived, as shorter-range models began to confirm the predictions. Forecasters were finally confident enough in the computer-forecast models to support decisions by several Northeastern U.S. states to declare a State of Emergency before the snow even started to fall.

In the South, however, temperatures in the days before the storm were typical for early March. Although large fluctuations in temperature are not unusual in the deep south, many residents doubted that freezing temperatures could return so rapidly or that snow was likely due to the rarity of significant snowfall later than February. Many local TV news stations were reluctant to even broadcast the forecast models, due to the extreme numbers being predicted by the computers, but the models turned out to be right.