In probability theory, the rule of succession is a formula introduced in the 18th century by Pierre-Simon Laplace in the course of treating the sunrise problem.
The formula is still used, particularly to estimate underlying probabilities when there are few observations, or for events which have not been observed to occur at all in (finite) sample data. Assigning events a zero probability would contravene Cromwell's rule, which can never be strictly justified in physical situations, albeit sometimes has to be assumed in practice.
Read more about Rule Of Succession: Statement of The Rule of Succession, Interpretation, Historical Application To The Sunrise Problem, Mathematical Details, Generalization To Any Number of Possibilities, Further Analysis
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