Nicaragua - History - 1990s and The Post-Sandinista Era (movement Towards Socialism)

1990s and The Post-Sandinista Era (movement Towards Socialism)

The Nicaraguan general election, 1990 saw the defeat of the Sandinistas by a coalition of anti-Sandinista (from the left and right of the political spectrum) parties led by Violeta Chamorro, the widow of Pedro Joaquín Chamorro. The defeat shocked the Sandinistas, as numerous pre-election polls had indicated a sure Sandinista victory, and their pre-election rallies had attracted crowds of several hundred thousand people. The unexpected result was subject to extensive analysis and comment. Commentators such as Noam Chomsky and Brian Willson attributed the outcome to the U.S./Contra threats to continue the war if the Sandinistas retained power, the general war-weariness of the Nicaraguan population, and the abysmal Nicaraguan economic situation.

The C.I.A. manual, "Psychological Operations in Guerrilla Warfare" under the subheading, "Implicit and Explicit Terror" instructs the Contras that "If the government police cannot put an end to the guerrilla activities, the population will lose confidence in the government, which has the inherent mission of guaranteeing the safety of citizens." "The United States wanted the contras kept intact in their Honduran bases to ensure Nicaraguan compliance with commitments to democratic and electoral change," the Washington Post reported. Boston Globe editor Randolph Ryan observed, Washington is sending "an implicit message..to the Nicaraguan electorate: If you want a secure peace, vote for the opposition."

The Canadian Observer Mission's four-week investigation of the electoral process in Nicaragua reported that the U.S. "is doing everything it can to disrupt the elections set for next year": "American intervention is the main obstacle to the attainment of free and fair elections in Nicaragua," the report stated. It added further that the Contras are "waging a campaign of intimidation with the clear message,`if you support the (Sandinista government), we will be back to kill you'." The observer mission estimates that the contras killed 42 people in "election violence" in October. In its review of 1989, Human Rights Watch condemned the Bush administration for trying to sabotage the elections by sustaining the death squads with aid and encouraging attacks on the electoral process.

On November 8, 1989, the White House announced that the embargo against Nicaragua would continue unless Violeta Chamorro won. The Bush administration also financed Chamorro's campaign with a $9 million election aid package through the National Endowment for Democracy. Edgar Chamorro, a former Contra leader who later became a critic of the CIA-Contra war, said 'For Nicaraguans, the choice was simple: continued war, poverty and inflation or opposition candidate Violeta Barrios de Chamorro'.."They were not electing a president, they were electing a way out." President elect Chamorro surmised that ensuing problems such as 16,000% inflation "eroded the credibility of the government" and led people to realize that "if the Sandinistas won, the pain would continue."

Time Magazine acknowledges that U.S. policy was to: "wreck the economy and prosecute a long and deadly proxy war until the exhausted natives overthrow the unwanted government themselves. Since 1985 Washington has strangled Nicaraguan trade with an embargo. It has cut off Nicaragua's credit at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The contra war cost Managua tens of millions and left the country with wrecked bridges, sabotaged power stations and ruined farms. The impoverishment of the people of Nicaragua was a harrowing way to give the National Opposition Union (U.N.O.) a winning issue. Nicaragua had been devastated by a 40% drop in G.N.P., an inflation rate running at 1,700% a year and constant shortages of food and basic necessities. At least 30,000 people had been killed in the war, and 500,000 more had fled."

Thomas Walker, a specialist on Central America, writes: "The voters chose a candidate of Washington's choice with a 'gun held to their heads', as was clear to many impartial observers."

P. J. O'Rourke countered the US-centered criticism in his book Give War a Chance, saying "the unfair advantages of using state resources for party ends, about how Sandinista control of the transit system prevented UNO supporters from attending rallies, how Sandinista domination of the army forced soldiers to vote for Ortega and how Sandinista bureaucracy kept $3.3 million of U.S. campaign aid from getting to UNO while Daniel Ortega spent millions donated by overseas people and millions and millions more from the Nicaraguan treasury ..."

Exit polls of Nicaraguans reported Chamorro's victory over Ortega was achieved with 55% majority. Violeta Chamorro was the first female President of Nicaragua, and also the first woman to be popularly elected for this position in any American nation. Exit polling convinced Daniel Ortega that the election results were legitimate, and were instrumental in his decision to accept the vote of the people and step down rather than void the election. Ortega vowed that he would govern desde abajo (from below); in other words due to his widespread control of institutions and Sandinista individuals in all government agencies, he would still be able to maintain control and govern even without being president.

Chamorro came to office with an economy in ruins. The per capita income of Nicaragua had been reduced by over 80% during the 1980s, and a huge government debt had ascended to US$12 billion, primarily due to the financial and social costs of the Contra war with the Sandinista-led government. Much to the surprise of the U.S. and the contra forces, Chamorro did not dismantle the Sandinista Popular Army, although the name was changed to the Nicaraguan Army. Chamorro's main contribution to Nicaragua was the disarmament of groups in the northern and central areas of the country. This provided the stability which the country had lacked for over ten years.

In the next election, the Nicaraguan general election, 1996, Daniel Ortega and the Sandinistas of the FSLN were again defeated, this time by Arnoldo Alemán of the Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC).

11 years after toppling the Sandinistas, Nicaragua remained the second poorest country in the Western Hemisphere next to Haiti, its 5 million residents beset by hunger, crime, and unemployment. For much of the campaign, Ortega had been leading in the polls, and many observers expected him to regain the presidency.

In "The Lost Revolution", Mother Jones reports: "Ortega's political resurrection alarmed the Bush administration, which dispatched diplomat Lino Gutierrez to Managua in June to rail against the front-runner. "If the CIA had any brains," says one political analyst in Managua, "they'd have figured out by now that the Sandinistas not only don't represent a Marxist threat, but that long ago the party was taken over by opportunistic yuppies." Beneath the cynicism, few in Nicaragua see any way out of the current plight. Many prominent Sandinistas have left the party, saying a victory by Ortega holds no promise of meaningful change."

In the 2001 elections, the Bush administration attempted to link the Sandinistas with the "War on Terror" as a means of intimidating the population into voting for the U.S. backed candidate. A State Department press release stated that "we have grave reservations about the FSLN's history."

John F. Keane, Director of the Office of Central American Affairs at the State Department warned: "It would be dishonest of me not to acknowledge that the possibility of the election of a Sandinista government is disconcerting to the US government. We cannot forget that Nicaragua became a refuge for violent political extremists from the Middle East, from Europe and from Latin America. We are reminded of it daily by the continuing presence of some members of the FSLN leadership, including some very close to candidate Ortega, such as Tomás Borge, Lenín Cerna and Álvaro Baltodano, who perpetrated many of these abominations. Given their past record, why should we believe their statements that they have changed if they have done nothing concrete to demonstrate it…? We are confident that the Nicaraguan people will reflect on the nature and history of the candidates and choose wisely."

In response, Daniel Ortega maintained, "We have already expressed our readiness to support the fight against international terrorism. But any action must be based on the consensus of the international community, respect for international law, and not run counter to the system of the United Nations."

In the 2001 elections, the PLC again defeated the FSLN, with Enrique Bolaños winning the Presidency. The Washington Post explained the victory. The U. S. supported candidate "focused much of his campaign on reminding people of the economic and military difficulties of the Ortega era."

President Bolaños subsequently brought forward allegations of money laundering, theft and corruption against former President Alemán. The ex-president was convicted and sentenced to 20 years in prison for embezzlement, money laundering, and corruption. Liberal members who were loyal to Alemán and also members of congress reacted angrily, and along with Sandinista parliament members, stripped the presidential powers of President Bolaños and his ministers, calling for his resignation and threatening impeachment. The Sandinistas alleged that their support for Bolaños was lost when U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell told Bolaños to keep his distance from the FSLN. This "slow motion coup d'état" was averted partially due to pressure from the Central American presidents, who vowed not to recognize any movement that removed Bolaños; the U.S., the OAS, and the European Union also opposed the "slow motion coup d'état". The proposed constitutional changes, to be introduced in 2005 against the Bolaños administration, were delayed until January 2007 after the entrance of the new government. One day before they were due to be enforced, the National Assembly postponed their enforcement until January 2008.

Before the general elections on 5 November 2006, the National Assembly passed a bill further restricting abortion in Nicaragua 52-0 (9 abstaining, 29 absent). President Enrique Bolaños supported this measure, and signed the bill into law on 17 November 2006. As a result, Nicaragua is one of five countries in the world where abortion is illegal with no exceptions, along with Chile, Malta, El Salvador, and the Vatican City.

In the 2006 elections, Paul Trivelli, the US ambassador to Nicaragua issued a vigorous warning to the electorate against supporting Daniel Ortega. The ambassador said that an Ortega administration talked of a mixed economy and renegotiating CAFTA, the trade agreement between the U.S. and Central America – would force Washington to "re-evaluate" relations. "He has made it pretty clear what kind of model he would put in place. And I think that under those conditions. .. would definitely be re-examined – and not only by the executive or the State Department or the White House but by the US Congress," he said.

The Financial Times emphasized: "It is no secret that the US is determined to prevent the spread of populist politics along the lines practised by Mr Chávez."

Roger Noriega, the Bush administration’s envoy to Latin America, in the Managua newspaper La Prensa warned the population that Nicaragua will "sink like a stone and reach depths such as those of Cuba" if the Sandinistas returned to office – Referring to the 50 year old United States embargo against Cuba.

Otto Reich, former Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs declared: "If he wins, there will be no foreign investment and no US aid."

Legislative and presidential elections took place on November 5, 2006. Daniel Ortega returned to the presidency with 37.99% of the vote. This percentage was enough to win the presidency outright, due to a change in electoral law which lowered the percentage requiring a runoff election from 45% to 35% (with a 5% margin of victory).

Nicaragua's 2011 general election resulted in re-election of Daniel Ortega.