Methods To Eliminate Wishful Thinking
Reference class forecasting was developed by Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg to eliminate or reduce the effects of wishful thinking in decision making. Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize winner in economics, calls Flyvbjerg's counsel to use reference class forecasting to de-bias forecasts and avoid wishful thinking, "the single most important piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy in forecasting.”
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Famous quotes containing the words methods, eliminate and/or thinking:
“There are souls that are incurable and lost to the rest of society. Deprive them of one means of folly, they will invent ten thousand others. They will create subtler, wilder methods, methods that are absolutely DESPERATE. Nature herself is fundamentally antisocial, it is only by a usurpation of powers that the organized body of society opposes the natural inclination of humanity.”
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