Methods To Eliminate Wishful Thinking
Reference class forecasting was developed by Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg to eliminate or reduce the effects of wishful thinking in decision making. Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize winner in economics, calls Flyvbjerg's counsel to use reference class forecasting to de-bias forecasts and avoid wishful thinking, "the single most important piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy in forecasting.”
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Famous quotes containing the words methods, eliminate and/or thinking:
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