Development
A statistical evaluation of a trading strategy has two main goals. The first is to find out the optimal account capitalization requited to achieve the maximum rate of sustainable return. The second is to find out whether the risk-adjusted reward is equal to, inferior to, or superior to other competing strategies. Without a statistically reliable measurement of the risk-adjusted reward, it is impossible to assess whether future performance is in line with historical performance. The cost of trading a strategy is primarily defined by risk, and without a statistically reliable measure of risk, portfolio management is impossible.
When developing a trading strategy, many things must be considered: return, risk, volatility, time frame, style, correlation with the markets, methods, etc. After developing a strategy, it can be back tested using computer programs. Although backtesting is no guarantee of future performance, it gives the trader confidence that the strategy has worked in the past. If the strategy is not over-optimized, data-mined, or based on random coincidences, it might have a good chance of working in the future.
Read more about this topic: Trading Strategy
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