Sovereign Default - Solutions

Solutions

With the reputation of the Big Three coming under fire since the 2008 Financial Crisis, many have questioned their ratings methods. Marc Joffe, a former Senior Director at Moody's and now Principal Consultant at Public Sector Credit Solutions (PSCS), has recently argued that economists and other academic social scientists, via logit and probit econometric models, are better equipped than ratings agencies to assess the default risk of sovereigns and municipalities. To support better ratings methods, PSCS (in partnership with Wikirating) maintains a comprehensive public database of sovereign defaults, revenues, expenditures, debt levels, and debt service costs. PSCS has also developed the Public Sector Credit Framework, an open source budget simulation model that helps analysts assess default probabilities.

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