Other Uses
The term "scenario" is also used for an account or synopsis of a projected course of action, events or situations. Scenario development is used in policy planning, organizational development and generally, when organizations wish to test strategies against uncertain future developments.
Scenarios are widely used by organizations of all types to understand different ways that future events might unfold. Scenario planning or scenario analysis is a complex business process related to futures studies.
In this sense, scenarios should not be used to speculate on what has happened in the past. According to the Forecasting Dictionary, a scenario is “a story about what happened in the future”. Vivid scenarios distort people's perceptions of the likelihood of the events they describe. Scenarios can therefore be used to overcome resistance to unpopular forecasts. Gregory and Duran (2001) examine principles for the use of scenarios in gaining acceptance of forecasts.
In root cause analysis the scenario is the story of how an event played out. For example:
- The initial conditions that amount to an accident waiting to
- What disturbed the set-up to get an event into progress
- The additional developments that occurred to result in the final *The final situation.
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