San Andreas Fault - The Next One

The Next One

Ever since the 1906 San Francisco earthquake showed what the San Andreas fault can do, the public and the scientists alike have wondered: when is The Next One. Some way of predicting major earthquakes with sufficient precision to warrant taking increased precautions has long been sought, but remains elusive. Nonetheless, the 2008 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) has estimated that the probability of an M ≥ 6.7 earthquake within the next 30 years on the northern and southern segments of the San Andreas fault as 21% and 59%, respectively.