Probability Distribution
In a given period of n years, the probability of a given number k of events of a given return interval T is given by the binomial distribution as follows. In the limit of long periods (as n grows large), this converges to the Poisson distribution.
Take
where
- T is return interval
- n is number of years on record;
- m is the number of recorded occurrences of the event being considered
If the probability of an event occurring is p, then the probability of the event not occurring is . The binomial distribution can be used to find the probability of occurrence of an event r times in a period of n years.
Read more about this topic: Return Period
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