Regional Effects of Global Warming - Especially Affected Regions

Especially Affected Regions

The Arctic, Africa, small islands and Asian megadeltas are regions that are likely to be especially affected by future climate change. Within other areas, some people are particularly at risk from future climate change, such as the poor, young children and the elderly.

The Arctic is likely to be especially affected by climate change because of the high projected rate of regional warming and associated impacts. Temperature projections for the Arctic region were assessed by Anisimov et al. (2007). These suggested areally averaged warming of about 2 °C to 9 °C by the year 2100. The range reflects different projections made by different climate models, run with different forcing scenarios. Radiative forcing is a measure of the effect of natural and human activities on the climate. Different forcing scenarios reflect, for example, different projections of future human greenhouse gas emissions.

Africa is likely to be the continent most vulnerable to climate change. With high confidence, Boko et al. (2007) projected that in many African countries and regions, agricultural production and food security would likely be severely compromised by climate change and climate variability.

On small islands, sea level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, erosion and other coastal hazards, and threaten vital infrastructure, human settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities. In the coastal zone of Asia, there are 11 megadeltas with an area greater than 10,000 km2. These megadeltas are homes to millions of people, and contain diverse ecosystems. Climate change and sea level rise could increase the frequency and level of inundation of Asian megadeltas due to storm surges and floods from river drainage.