Markets
Prediction Markets like the Iowa Electronic Markets provide highly accurate forecasts of election outcomes. Comparing market forecasts with 964 election polls for the five US presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, Berg et al. (2008) showed that the IEM outperformed the polls 74% of the time. However, damped polls have been shown to outperform prediction markets. Comparing damped polls to forecasts of the Iowa Electronic Markets, Erikson and Wlezien (2008) showed that the damped polls outperformed both the winner-take-all and the vote-share markets.
Read more about this topic: Political Forecasting
Famous quotes containing the word markets:
“When the great markets by the sea shut fast
All that calm Sunday that goes on and on:
When even lovers find their peace at last,
And Earth is but a star, that once had shone.”
—James Elroy Flecker (1884–1919)
“A free-enterprise economy depends only on markets, and according to the most advanced mathematical macroeconomic theory, markets depend only on moods: specifically, the mood of the men in the pinstripes, also known as the Boys on the Street. When the Boys are in a good mood, the market thrives; when they get scared or sullen, it is time for each one of us to look into the retail apple business.”
—Barbara Ehrenreich (b. 1941)