North American Monsoon - Patterns of Rainfall

Patterns of Rainfall

Rainfall during the monsoon is not continuous. It varies considerably, depending on a variety of factors. There are usually distinct "burst" periods of heavy rain during the monsoon, and "break" periods with little or no rain. Monsoon precipitation, however, accounts for a substantial portion of annual precipitation in northwest Mexico and the Southwest U.S. Most of these areas receive over half their annual precipitation from the monsoon.

The North American Monsoon circulation pattern typically develops in late May or early June over southwest Mexico. By mid to late summer, thunderstorms increase over the "core" region of the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico, including the U.S. and Mexican states of Arizona, New Mexico, Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa and Durango. The monsoon typically arrives in mid to late June over northwest Mexico, and early July over the southwest U.S. Once the monsoon is underway, mountain ranges, including the Sierra Madre Occidental and the Mogollon Rim provide a focusing mechanism for the daily development of thunderstorms. Thus much of the monsoon rainfall occurs in mountainous terrain. For example, monsoon rainfall in the Sierra Madre Occidental typically ranges from 10 to 15 inches. Since the southwest U.S. is at the northern fringe of the monsoon, precipitation is less and tends to be more variable. Areas further west of the core monsoon region, namely California and Baja California, typically receive only spotty monsoon-related rainfall. In those areas, the intense solar heating isn't strong enough to overcome a continual supply of cold water from the North Pacific Ocean moving down the west coast of North America. Winds do turn toward the land in these areas, but the cool moist air actually stabilizes the atmosphere. The monsoon pushes as far west as the Peninsular Ranges and Transverse Ranges of southern California, but rarely reaches the coastal strip. As shown in the panorama below, a wall of thunderstorms, only a half-hour's drive away, is a common sight from the sunny skies along the coast during the monsoon.

This monsoon ridge is almost as strong as the one which develops over Asia during the summer. However, since the lower level moisture flow is not as persistent as in the Indian monsoon, the upper level steering pattern and disturbances around the ridge are critical for influencing where thunderstorms develop on any given day. The exact strength and position of the subtropical ridge also governs how far north the tropical easterly winds aloft can spread. If the ridge is too close to a particular area, the sinking air at its center suppresses thunderstorms and can result in a significant monsoon "break." If the ridge is too far away or too weak, the east winds around the high are inadequate to bring tropical moisture into the mountains of Mexico and southwest U.S. However, if the ridge sets up in a few key locations, widespread and potentially severe thunderstorms can develop.