Decline
After 1772, when Gustav III upset Panin's plans in Sweden, Panin, whose policy hitherto had been at least original and independent, became more and more subservient to Frederick II of Prussia. As to Poland, his views differed widely from the views of both Frederick and Catherine. He seriously guaranteed the integrity of Polish territory, after placing Stanislaus II on the throne, in order that Poland, undivided and as strong as circumstances would permit, might be drawn wholly within the orbit of Russia. But he did not foresee the complications which were likely to arise from Russia's interference in the domestic affairs of Poland. Thus the Confederation of Bar, and the ensuing Russo-Turkish War, took him completely by surprise and considerably weakened his position. He was forced to acquiesce in the first partition of Poland, and when Russia came off third best, Grigori Orlov declared in the council that the minister who had signed such a partition treaty was worthy of death.
Panin further incensed Catherine by meddling with the marriage arrangements of the grand duke Paul and by advocating a closer alliance with Prussia, whereas the empress was beginning to incline more and more towards Austria. Nevertheless, even after Paul's second marriage, Panin maintained all his old influence over his pupil, who, like himself, was now a warm admirer of the king of Prussia. There are even traditions from this period of an actual conspiracy of Panin and Paul against the empress. As the Austrian influence increased, Panin found a fresh enemy in Joseph II, and the efforts of the old statesman to prevent a matrimonial alliance between the Russian and Austrian courts determined Catherine to get rid of a counsellor of whom, for some mysterious reason, she was secretly afraid. The circumstances of his disgrace are complicated and obscure. The final rupture seems to have arisen on the question of the declaration of the armed neutrality of the North, but it is known that Grigori Potemkin and the English ambassador, James Harris (afterwards 1st earl of Malmesbury), were both working against him some time before that. In May 1781 Panin was dismissed. He died two years later.
Read more about this topic: Nikita Ivanovich Panin
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