Modern Research
Initial studies compared homicide statistics between states using and not using capital punishment, and found no evidence of deterrence (Bailey & Peterson). Studies then tested certainty as against severity of punishment, e.g. Erickson (1977). The research methodologies used are either the analysis of Official Statistics for objective indicators of correlations, and attitudinal interviews and questionnaires for subjective indicators (potential criminals will not be deterred unless they understand how the criminal justice system works). The research finds that the majority conform to the law because they subscribe to the social and moral values represented by the law (i.e. the process of socialisation is effective). Hence, at best, the threat of punishment has a not statistically insignificant effect on reported crime and the empirical evidence in support of deterrence is very limited. Raymond Paternoster's work (see bibliography ) demonstrates that the only statistically significant data emerges from experiential studies among those who have been through the criminal justice system (i.e. specific deterrence), but that this data on its own cannot validate general deterrence. He also finds no evidence that formal social controls are effective. Some informal social negative consequences such as the disapproval of family, loss of reputation, possible loss of employment, etc., are more significant. There is also strong evidence that increasing the rewards of conformity by providing better employment opportunities at realistic rates of pay can achieve comparable deterrent effect by giving potential offenders more to lose (Tierney:1996, 277).
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