Long Ball - Statistical Basis

Statistical Basis

The 'long ball theory' was first discussed by a retired RAF Wing Commander—Charles Reep—in the 1950s in England. Reep was an amateur statistician and analyzed not only the number of passes that led to a goal, but also the field positions where those passes originated. Reep documented his findings in various publications including match day programmes.

Reep developed a number of concepts describing effective long ball play. 'Gulleys' refer to the optimum position between the corner flag and six yard box from which to make the final pass into the penalty box; the '3-pass optimization rule' emerges from the fact that a higher percentage of goals are scored in moves involving only three passes prior to the shot; the '9 shots per goal' maxim, stating that on average, only one goal is scored for every nine shots; and the 'twelve point three yard' position, which is the mean distance from the goal that all goals are scored.. The long-ball game is also advocated in such books The Winning Formula: The Football Association Soccer Skills and Tactics, by Charles Hughes, which demonstrates with statistics that a majority of goals are scored within 5 passes of the ball.

Jonathan Wilson criticises Reep's statistical analysis as heavily flawed. The 'three pass optimum', for example, comes in for particular criticism. Wilson notes that while Reep's statistics showed that a higher percentage of goals were scored in moves involving three passes, they also show that three pass moves account for a higher percentage of all shots. Instead, the percentage of shots for which three-pass or fewer account is higher than the percentage of goals for which they account, implying that moves involving more passes have a higher ratio of success. Furthermore, Reep's own statistics show that this trend becomes stronger at higher levels of football, indicating that moves with a greater number of passes become more effective amongst higher quality teams. Reep also fails to distinguish statistically between three-pass moves that emerge from long balls and those that emerge from other sources such as attacking free kicks or successful tackles in the opponent's half.