Lateral Pressure Theory - Phases of Theory Development - Modeling and Simulation

Modeling and Simulation

The development of lateral pressure theory and its empirical underpinnings have gone through several phases. The first phase consists of (a) large scale cross-national statistical econometric investigations of the 45 years leading to World War I and follow-up studies, and (b) detailed complex quantitative inquiry into the political economy of war and peace in Sino-Soviet-US relations during the decades following World War II .

Nations in Conflict a comparative and quantitative analysis of major powers in world politics over four decades prior to World War I (Choucri and North 1975) – includes a set modeling and simulations that yielded of the empirical connections between the master variables and the behavior of states. Choucri and North (1975) developed an econometric simulation model of six major powers over the span of 45 years leading to World War I. In each case they found the causal connection between the master variables and the overt international behavior. The traditionally dominant power during this period, Great Britain, viewed any significant growth in other powers as a source of threat and these perceptions were translated into specific policies intended to retain an advantage over the other powers, most notably a rapidly growing and newly unified Germany.

The Political Economy of War and Peace examines the conflict dynamics in interstate relations among competing powers generated by differentials in growth of population, resource access, and levels of technology (Ashley 1980). Focusing on three major powers during the post World War II decades, the United States, the Soviet Union, and China, it demonstrates the close interconnections among national growth, bilateral rivalry, and multilateral balance of power. The study shows how the dynamics of insecurity and the antagonizing processes contribute to the globalization of military competition which, in turn, creates serious impediments to the collective management of many dimensions of growth itself. Despite changes in world politics since 1914, and the dynamics modeled in Nations in Conflict, some fundamental features of lateral pressure retain powerful resonance during the post World War II war period. This general observation is then followed by careful model development, empirical grounding and parameter estimation as well as simulation of sensitivity analysis. The focus in this case is the overall security problematic on a worldwide basis.

(In retrospect, despite the end of communism and the dissolution of the Soviet Union the analysis as well as the results shed important light on the emergent challenges to global and national security in the 21st century. The unquestionable dominance of the United States in world politics does little to dampen the perceptions of threat due to China‘s growth or Russia‘s competitive intents given its existing capabilities.)

The second phase of lateral pressure modeling is illustrated by a detailed analysis of the case of Japan over the span of more than one hundred years (Choucri, North, and Yamakage 1992). Focusing on growth, development, competition, warfare, and reconstruction Japan illustrated the ways in which a state sought to manage its resource constraints, adopt internal and external policies to meet its core demands, and find itself engaged in competition and conflict it viewed as essential for its survival. The concept of state profile, introduced in an earlier study (Choucri and North 1989), was operationalized and put to the empirical test in the Japan case across three historical period, before World War I, during the Inter-War decades, and following the Second World War.

The Japan case indicates how a country‘s profile can change over time and how these changes are associated with different patterns of international behavior. Each period demonstrated different structural features and alternative pathways for adjustments to internal and external constraints. Examining the Japan case from the Meiji Restoration, through World War I and World War II, and the early 1980s, it was clear that Japan‘s profile continued to demonstrate powerful resource scarcities, and thus the continued dependence on external trade. The demand for imports could only be met by the supply of exports, thus shaping a vicious cycle of reliance on external resources. Japan was caught between a rock (invariant resource levels) and a hard place (external constraints on resource access). In the decades preceding major international conflicts Japan fostered its eventual technology-dominant profile enabling it to engage in a wide range of expansionist activities to reduce its resource constraints.

The third phase of lateral pressure modeling builds on exploratory system dynamics modeling since the 1970s. Early system dynamics models of lateral pressure such as Choucri, Laird, and Meadows (1972) addressed the interconnections among the master variables that create internal sources of external conflict. Extending this work, Choucri and Bousfield (1978) developed a model of the economy anchored in the master variables, and then located sources of lateral pressure and propensities toward modes of external behavior.

Later, in a comparative analysis of 20 countries (industrial and developing) Wils, Kamiya and Choucri (1998) extended the analysis of internal sources of international conflict, and examined the nature of the feedback effects, namely how international conflict in turn influences and even alters the master variables of the state and changes the internal sources of conflict as well as propensities for particular modes of external behavior. Subsequently, Lofdahl (2002) modeled the relationship between internal dynamics of growth and development rooted in the master variables, on the one hand, and propensities toward particular patterns of international trade and their environmental impacts, on the other.

The fourth phase concentrates on the measurement of change in the master variables and implications for international relations. The focus is on the resulting distribution of states both within and across profiles (Wickbolt and Choucri 2006). Using fuzzy logic, made it possible to investigate more systematically and more accurate the distribution of states throughout the international system. This could be an important step in anticipating conflict-prone behavior. Also in this phase are some nascent efforts to conceptualize state behavior in cyberspace, and thus develop metrics to explore propensities for behaviors in cyberspace. Clearly an exact comparison between behaviors in ―real and virtual domains cannot be assumed. Considerable exploratory investigations are required.

All of these initiatives are informative in their own right. Each one provides important insights and evidence about the antagonizing processes that lead to system-threatening dynamics and, in some cases, to overt conflict, violence and war.