Iraq War Insurgent Attacks - Awareness of US Opinion On The War

Awareness of US Opinion On The War

One study has compared the number of insurgent attacks in Iraq to the number of "anti-resolve" statements in the US media, the release of public opinion polls, and geographic variations in access to international media by Iraqis. The purpose was to determine if insurgents responded to information on "casualty sensitivity." The researchers found that insurgent attacks spiked by 5 to 10% after increases in the number of negative reports of the war in the media. The authors identified this as an "emboldenment effect" and concluded "insurgent groups respond rationally to expected probability of US withdrawal."

In a response, Camillo Mac Bica has expressed surprise that an "unpublished . . . working paper" had excited as much interest as it did among media outlets and bloggers. He argued that the research methodology utilized in this study was flawed and that the researchers, despite recognizing and acknowledging the inadequacies of their argument, continued to draw conclusions not indicated by their findings.

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