Iraq Spring Fighting of 2008 - Aftermath

Aftermath

Following the first cease-fire at the end of March, the campaign had reached a stalemate between the two sides. However, by all accounts the Iraqi Army had a mixed performance during the clashes. Somewhere between 1,500 and 2,000 members of the Iraqi security forces out of 30,000 troops used in Basra deserted, defected or surrendered during the fighting. Basra has fallen mostly into Iraqi Government control(70%) In Sadr City the Mahdi Army has come to agreement with Iraqi security forces to keep weapons off the streets and allow patrols of Iraqi Army convoys, not to mention give them right to allow arrest of members of their forces.

Following the fighting the Maliki government allegedly agreed to political concessions for a cease-fire, including legal and military immunity for the Mahdi Army and a release of its captured members, although Maliki denies any concessions were made. Many analysts said the Mahdi Army had scored a major political victory, which also presented the fighting capabilities of the militia that were, despite a lack of heavier weapons, far greater than those of the Iraqi security forces. However, this is apparently been objected to by the Maliki Government, since it continued its operations against Mahdi Army strongholds in Sadr City and Basrah.

The Mahdi Army stated that it will only disarm if the Shiite Clergy agree with Maliki's aims.

In light of the battle with the Mahdi army, there has been consensus from Kurdish, Sunni and the Shia political parties not aligned with Sadrists to support Prime Minister Maliki's efforts to impose Government authority in the south, even showing support to revoking the right of any political party to be represented in the October provincial elections if they continue to operate militias outside of Iraqi law.

By early May the fighting was centered mostly on Sadr City in Baghdad and Basra was reportedly under government control.

Some 5,000 fighters belonging to the Special Groups fled across the border into Iran during the offensive and after the cease-fire.