Hungarian Regional Autonomy - Controversy

Controversy

The creation of the Hungarian Regional Autonomy with proposed regional borders is a controversial issue. If the new region is supposed to be created by the democratic consensus and free voluntary association of the municipalities or settlements, it is not likely that the citizens of the predominantly Serb municipality of Novi Kneževac would vote to join their municipality to the Hungarian Regional Autonomy.

It is also questionable how would vote the majority of the citizens of the ethnically mixed municipalities of Subotica and Bečej, since the ethnic Hungarians make up less than 50% of population in these municipalities. For example, in the municipality of Subotica, the proposed administrative center of the new region, only 38.47% of the population are ethnic Hungarians, while 53.36% of the population are various Serbian or Croatian speaking South Slavic ethnic groups.

Another problem regarding successful implementation of the regional autonomy proposal is demographic trend in the area. The current proposal is based on demographic data from last population census in 2002, which put percent of Hungarians in the area at 52.10% and percent of Serbs at 25.74%. However, these demographic relations might change drastically in the next few decades. According to the 1991 census, the total population of this area (including all 9 municipalities) numbered 358,126 people, of whom 202,205 (56.46%) were ethnic Hungarians and 67,392 (18.82%) were ethnic Serbs. In 2002, the total population of the area was 340,006, of whom 177,143 (52.10%) were ethnic Hungarians and 87,499 (25.74%) were ethnic Serbs. Differences between two censuses show decrease of Hungarian and increase of Serb population in the area. If same demographic trends continue in the following time period, the next population census (in 2011) might show that Hungarians are no longer absolute but only relative majority in the area, while in 2020-2030 Serbs might replace Hungarians as the largest ethnic group in the area, hence it is hard to believe the majority of local inhabitants who will live in this area in 2020-2030 (or even in 2010) would support regional autonomy proposal. There is also a question whether regional autonomy that would be established right now could prevent decline of Hungarian population in the area. The examples from municipalities such are Subotica or Bečej show that no matter that these municipalities were under ethnic Hungarian local administration, the number of Hungarians in these areas declined.

Some argue that the steep decrease of Hungarian population and parallel growth of Serbian population experienced between 1991 and 2000 would not be so large between 2001 and 2010, as this phenomenon was partially fueled by the various armed conflicts that emerged on the territory of former Yugoslavia between 1991 and 2000. More specifically, a mass emigration of young ethnic Hungarian men could be observed following the outbreak of the conflicts, whose purpose was mainly to avoid military service in the Yugoslav army. Also, the largely ethnic reasons of the Yugoslav wars made many ethnic Hungarians feel insecure about their future in Serbia and, together with the ensuing economic regression, convinced them to opt for emigration to Hungary or to other countries. On the other hand, the strong increase of Serbian population in the region is partially due to the settlement of Serbs that fled Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo after the Yugoslav army, Serbian police or other local Serb armed formations had lost control over these territories. However, the previous period from 1948 to 1991, before the Yugoslav conflicts emerged, also show decrease of Hungarian and increase of Serbian population (428,932 Hungarians in Vojvodina in 1948 and 340,946 Hungarians in Vojvodina in 1991, 841,246 Serbs in Vojvodina in 1948 and 1,151,353 Serbs in Vojvodina in 1991). Therefore, even if not so fast, the further decrease of Hungarian population in Vojvodina is expected (Similar decrease of Hungarian population is also present in Slovakia and Romania, i.e., in countries that did not experienced armed conflicts and mass influx of refugees).