Modern Analysis
The Hurricane Research Division of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory of NOAA has conducted a Re-Analysis Project to re-examine the National Hurricane Center's data about historic hurricanes. In association with the Project, Brian Jarvinen, formerly of NHC, used modern hurricane and storm surge computer models to recreate a storm consistent with contemporary accounts of the GCH.
Jarvinen estimated that the GCH was probably a Cape Verde-type hurricane, considering its intensity, which took a track similar to the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 and Hurricane Edna of 1954. The storm's eye would have struck Long Island before moving between Boston and Plymouth. It would likely have been a Category 4 or 5 hurricane further south in the Atlantic, and it was at least a strong Category 3 hurricane at landfall with 125 mph (201 km/h) sustained winds and a central pressure of 938 mbar (27.7 inHg) at the Long Island landfall and 939 mbar (27.7 inHg) at the mainland landfall. This would be the most intense known hurricane landfall north of North Carolina. Jarvinen noted that the GCH may have caused the highest storm surge along the east coast of the U.S. in recorded history: 20 feet (6.1 m) near the head of Narragansett Bay. He concluded that "this was probably the most intense hurricane in New England history."
An erosional scarp in the western Gulf of Maine may be a trace of the Great Colonial Hurricane.
Read more about this topic: Great Colonial Hurricane Of 1635
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