Grand Supercycle - Comparison To The Kondratiev Cycle

Comparison To The Kondratiev Cycle

Elliott Wave analysis is distinct from Kondratiev wave analysis. Modern Kondratiev theory examines the role of variables such as leading technologies, the long credit cycle and demographics in creating long economic cycles. Although Elliot wave practitioners and other market analysts refer to Kondratiev waves or long economic cycles or surges, the economic literature generally does not use the term Grand Supercycle for any business cycles.

Although wave analysts have been predicting a long cycle downturn for a number of years based on the timing of previous waves, there is limited support in the Kondratiev cycle literature for any regular or periodic recurrence of future cycles, but spectral analysis of business cycle may suggest a 53-year cycle. A branch of Kondratiev wave analysis that has predictive power is that using the logistic function which has been investigated by members of IIASA in papers by Cesare Marchetti and Arnulf Grübler's book on infrastructures, which has a chapter on Kondratiev wave cycles and notes a 55-year time between midpoints of infrastructures.