Expectation and Strategy
Games of chance are not merely pure applications of probability calculus and gaming situations are not just isolated events whose numerical probability is well established through mathematical methods; they are also games whose progress is influenced by human action. In gambling, the human element has a striking character. The player is not only interested in the mathematical probability of the various gaming events, but he or she has expectations from the games while a major interaction exists. To obtain favorable results from this interaction, gamblers take into account all possible information, including statistics, to build gaming strategies. The predicted future gain or loss is called expectation or expected value and is the sum of the probability of each possible outcome of the experiment multiplied by its payoff (value). Thus, it represents the average amount one expects to win per bet if bets with identical odds are repeated many times. A game or situation in which the expected value for the player is zero (no net gain nor loss) is called a fair game. The attribute fair refers not to the technical process of the game, but to the chance balance house (bank)–player.
Even though the randomness inherent in games of chance would seem to ensure their fairness (at least with respect to the players around a table—shuffling a deck or spinning a wheel do not favor any player except if they are fraudulent), gamblers always search and wait for irregularities in this randomness that will allow them to win. It has been mathematically proved that, in ideal conditions of randomness, no long-run regular winning is possible for players of games of chance. Most gamblers accept this premise, but still work on strategies to make them win over the long run.
Read more about this topic: Gaming Mathematics
Famous quotes containing the words expectation and, expectation and/or strategy:
“Sweet pliability of man’s spirit, that can at once surrender itself to illusions, which cheat expectation and sorrow of their weary moments!—long—long since had ye number’d out my days, had I not trod so great a part of them upon this enchanted ground.”
—Laurence Sterne (1713–1768)
“In the United States, though power corrupts, the expectation of power paralyzes.”
—John Kenneth Galbraith (b. 1908)
“... the generation of the 20’s was truly secular in that it still knew its theology and its varieties of religious experience. We are post-secular, inventing new faiths, without any sense of organizing truths. The truths we accept are so multiple that honesty becomes little more than a strategy by which you manage your tendencies toward duplicity.”
—Ann Douglas (b. 1942)