Demographics of Scotland - Population Projections

Population Projections

Since the census of 2001, the Scottish Government and leading academics in Scotland have expressed concern over the falling number of births in Scotland and the ageing and decline of the population which has occurred over recent decades. The major reason is seen to be emigration from Scotland - particularly to the rest of the United Kingdom - although recent years have seen that trend reversed with significant immigration to Scotland from the rest of the United Kingdom . Similarly, since 2004 there has been a large influx of arrivals from the new EU accession states such as Poland, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Latvia, contributing to the recent growth of the population. Since 1997 Scotland has generally experienced a natural decrease in population, with an excess of deaths over births. In 2004, for example, there were 4012 more deaths than births, although for the last five years this process has been reversed with 4342 more births than deaths in 2008.

Compounding the problem of a declining and ageing population, Scotland is experiencing falling fertility and birth rates - a feature common to much of Europe. The ageing population sees the large numbers of people born in the post war period (1950s and 1960s) approach retirement. A common fear amongst commentators is the strain this could impose on the nation's resources, with a smaller working population being insufficient to support a high number of retirees and dependants.

In 2002, according to the GROS, the number of live births in Scotland was the lowest ever recorded, at 51,270. This has however steadily risen, with 53,957 births recorded in 2004 and in 2008 the number of live births was 60,041.

The Scottish Government has responded to these demographic trends by setting up the Fresh Talent - Working in Scotland Scheme open to foreign (non-EU) graduates from Scotland's universities allowing them a 2 year residency period after graduation.

Within Scotland itself there is significant regional variation in patterns of population growth, with areas such as Aberdeenshire (1.1%), Edinburgh (0.9%), Clackmannanshire (0.8%) Falkirk (1.1%), Perth and Kinross (0.6%) and West Lothian (0.6%) seeing the largest increases in population between 2004 and 2005. Conversely Aberdeen City (-0.5%), West Dunbartonshire (-0.6%) and East Dunbartonshire (-0.6%) have seen the largest falls in population. The Highlands have also seen a significant rise in population over recent years, compared with the last 200 years, in which the area lost large volumes of people, due to persistently high rates of (forced) emigration particularly to places such as Canada, the United States, Australia and New Zealand.

In December 2005, the GROS published a series of population projections which showed that Scotland's population was projected to rise between then and the year 2038, with both the numbers of births and deaths expected to drop. Immigration was projected to remain steady, positive and constant.

In January 2008, the GROS figures predicted that Scotland's population would rise to 5.54 million by 2033. Edinburgh's population could rise by 18%, while most other large Scottish cities would suffer a decline.