Delphi Vs. Prediction Markets
As can be seen from the Methodology Tree of Forecasting, Delphi has characteristics similar to prediction markets as both are structured approaches that aggregate diverse opinions from groups. Yet, there are differences that may be decisive for their relative applicability for different problems.
Some advantages of prediction markets derive from the possibility to provide incentives for participation.
- They can motivate people to participate over a long period of time and to reveal their true beliefs.
- They aggregate information automatically and instantly incorporate new information in the forecast.
- Participants do not have to be selected and recruited manually by a facilitator. They themselves decide whether to participate if they think their private information is not yet incorporated in the forecast.
Delphi seems to have these advantages over prediction markets:
- Potentially quicker forecasts if experts are readily available.
Read more about this topic: Delphi Method
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—Barbara Ehrenreich (b. 1941)