Conjunction Fallacy - Criticism of The Linda Problem

Criticism of The Linda Problem

Critics such as Gerd Gigerenzer and Ralph Hertwig criticized the Linda problem on grounds such as the wording and framing. The question of the Linda problem may violate conversational maxims in that people assume that the question obeys the maxim of relevance. Gigerenzer argues that some of the terminology used have polysemous meanings, the alternatives of which he claimed were more "natural". He argues that the meaning of probable “what happens frequently”, corresponds to the mathematical probability people are supposed to be tested on, but the meanings of probable “what is plausible”, and “whether there is evidence” do not. The term "and" has even been argued to have relevant polysemous meanings.

Many variations in wording of the Linda problem were studied by Tversky and Kahneman. If the first option is changed to obey conversational relevance, i.e., "Linda is a bank teller whether or not she is active in the feminist movement" the effect is decreased, but the majority (57%) of the respondents still commit the conjunction error. If the probability is changed to frequency format (see debiasing section below) the effect is reduced or eliminated.

The wording criticisms may be less applicable to the conjunction effect in separate evaluation. The "Linda problem" has been studied and criticized more than other types of demonstration of the effect (some described below).