Coherence (philosophical Gambling Strategy) - Operational Subjective Probabilities As Wagering Odds

Operational Subjective Probabilities As Wagering Odds

You must set the price of a promise to pay $1 if John Smith wins tomorrow's election, and $0 otherwise. You know that your opponent will be able to choose either to buy such a promise from you at the price you have set, or require you to buy such a promise from him/her, still at the same price. In other words: you set the odds, but your opponent decides which side of the bet will be yours. The price you set is the "operational subjective probability" that you assign to the proposition on which you are betting.

Note that this operationalization does not work if you believe the opponent has a different belief than you. For example, if you are 99% sure Smith will win, and believe your opponent is 99% sure Smith will lose, then you might set the price to 1 million dollars, expecting your opponent to erroneously promise to pay it to you.

((perhaps a new operationalization should be given here))